Boeing’s workforce forecast signals strategic risk and opportunity for African aviation

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OPINION

By Shakila Rahim Lamar

Boeing’s 2025 Pilot and Technician Outlook (PTO), released at the recent EAA AirVenture Oshkosh, projects that the global aviation industry will require 2.37 million new personnel over the next two decades to meet expected growth in fleet size and passenger volumes, as well as to replace an ageing workforce.

The demand includes 660,000 new pilots, 710,000 technicians, and one million cabin crew, with more than half of this projected need concentrated in China, North America, and Eurasia.

While the outlook reflects strong recovery and optimism for the global aviation industry, its implications for Africa are complex and warrant critical examination.

For African Airlines, the forecast underscores both a structural vulnerability and a strategic opportunity. Airbus estimates that the continent will need at least 14,000 new pilots and 21,000 technicians over the same period. These figures reflect anticipated regional fleet growth and a modest expansion in intra-African connectivity. But they also reveal the continent’s exposure to a looming global talent shortfall, which African airlines are not currently equipped to manage.

High operating costs, fragmented markets, and restrictive policy environments across the continent limit the competitiveness of African airlines and their capacity to scale.

In many jurisdictions, aviation remains heavily taxed, with levies on fuel, spare parts, training equipment, and passenger tickets eroding margins and discouraging investment.

Compounding these issues is the limited availability of certified training institutions capable of producing sufficient numbers of pilots, maintenance engineers, and technical specialists.

In countries where such facilities exist, their graduates are frequently drawn to better-paying opportunities in the Gulf, Europe, and North America. This talent outflow, while not new, is likely to intensify as global operators accelerate recruitment to meet the projected surge in demand.

For African carriers, many of which already operate at a disadvantage, this dynamic presents a real risk of capacity erosion. The inability to retain or replace skilled personnel could undermine safety, reliability, and long-term operational sustainability.

However, the projected global shortfall also provides a moment of strategic clarity. For African states and airlines willing to respond proactively, there is an opportunity to reposition the aviation sector as a core economic enabler and invest in workforce development as a matter of national and regional priority.

This would require a coordinated approach across several fronts. First, expanding the training ecosystem is critical. Governments, in partnership with the private sector and international development agencies, must invest in the establishment and accreditation of training institutions, both for pilots and technicians.

These facilities must be capable of delivering instruction to globally recognised standards and should be supported by regulatory reforms that streamline certification and licensing processes.

Second, regional policy harmonisation is essential. The slow implementation of the Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM), despite being adopted by over 35 African Union member states, continues to limit cross-border efficiency and scalability.

Greater liberalisation of airspace and a reduction in ownership restrictions could enable consolidation or cooperation among African carriers, creating the economies of scale necessary to sustain training programmes, retain talent, and invest in fleet modernisation.

Third, targeted fiscal reforms could play an enabling role. Reducing or rationalising aviation-specific taxes and charges, particularly those that directly affect training costs, would support human capital development and improve the cost base for airlines seeking to expand.

Finally, international partnerships will be necessary to bridge immediate capacity gaps. Collaboration with global Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) such as Boeing and Airbus, as well as regional carriers with established training arms, could facilitate knowledge transfer, access to simulators and equipment, and joint certification pathways for African trainees.

If current trends persist, the African aviation sector risks falling further behind in a global industry that is rapidly modernising and consolidating. Without sufficient personnel, airlines will be unable to scale operations or introduce new aircraft types.

Maintenance backlogs, schedule disruptions, and reliability challenges may become more frequent, exacerbating the sector’s reputation and undermining efforts to improve safety and service quality.

The broader economic consequences are equally significant. Aviation plays a vital role in supporting tourism, trade, emergency response, and regional integration. Workforce shortages, therefore, could limit the ability of African economies to leverage these benefits, even as demand for connectivity increases with urbanisation and middle-class growth.

Reflecting on Uganda Airlines, the Airline has suffered the burden of the legacies (the big boys), often as a breeding ground for technical skills, “poached” at a premium. The Airline still must skill, upskill, reskill, and cross-skill its people and the next generation Aviators. Strategic partnerships are underway with homegrown Aviation technical training institutions to ensure a skilled new crop in the industry.

Boeing’s forecast should, therefore, be seen as a prompt for strategic action rather than a cause for alarm. It provides African policymakers and aviation stakeholders with an evidence-based case for reform and investment. Addressing the projected talent shortfall will require deliberate policy shifts, enhanced cooperation, and long-term planning. The alternatives stagnation, dependence, and diminished competitiveness, are far more costly.

The writer Heads Corporate Affairs, PR and Sustainability at Uganda Airlines