Voters' choice of MPs in Buganda ahead of 2026

BUGANDA - The Vision Group research team conducted an opinion poll between March and May 2025, covering 6,006 Ugandans across 58 districts and all 17 sub-regions. It was conducted in order to make an assessment of the public’s perception of the forthcoming general election.

Respondents were asked an open-ended question: “Who do you think should be this area’s next MP?” The names mentioned in the poll were proposed by the respondents. This explains why some candidates who are not necessarily contenders in a particular constituency may appear in some other random electoral areas.

Gomba East  

Godfrey Saazi, the incumbent, is the people’s choice in Gomba East, with 83.3% of the sampled voters saying they would vote for the National Unity Platform (NUP) stalwart if elections were held today.

A son of the Buwanguzi village LC1 chairperson, Saazi is a Makerere University-trained lawyer, who joined politics in 2012 as an opposition advocate. On the people’s choice for the seat, Saazi is followed by seasoned lawmaker Emmanuel Kalule Ssengo, who was seconded with 12.5% of the sampled voters.

Ssengo, a former MP for Gomba East for two terms, was uprooted from Parliament by Saazi.

Asked about the current political pulse within the constituency, Jamil Kintu, a voter in the area, said: “We need a new leader because we had a lot of expectations from the previous leaders, but they failed to deliver.”

Gomba West  

For Gomba West, 42.9% of the sampled voters said they would vote Hillary Kiyaga from the neighbouring Mawokota North. Kiyaga recently expressed interest in contesting for Mawokota North.

Here, he will battle with the former trade minister Amelia Kyambadde. Robina Gureme Rwakoojo is the current Gomba West MP. A trained lawyer, Rwakoojo has served as MP for more than one term as Gomba West MP.

Rwakoojo recently expressed interest in contesting for Gomba West on the National Resistance Movement (NRM) ticket in 2026.

In the survey for Gomba District Woman MP, 3.4% of the sampled voters said they would vote her as their district Woman MP.

On the other hand, 28.6% of the sampled respondents said they would vote for Sharon Mulungi as Gomba West MP because she has the necessary skills to lead and she has contributed a lot to the development of the area.

Bamunanika County  

Although he recently quit elective politics, 75% of the sampled voters in Bamunanika County said they would vote for the state minister for higher education, Dr John Chrysostom Muyingo, as their MP come 2026.

Dr John Chrysostom Muyingo

Muyingo, an education sector entrepreneur, who joined elective politics in 2011, was in the 2021 general election defeated by his former campaign manager and political assistant, Robert Ssekitoleko of NUP.

At the start of this year, Muyingo, a former offi cial of Mengo, the seat of Buganda kingdom, expressed interest in returning to elective politics, but he chickened out last month, citing person reasons.

During the survey, 20% of the sampled respondents said they would vote for Ssekitoleko during the 2026 general polls.

Asked why they preferred Ssekitoleko, sampled voters said he is vocal on service delivery challenges and other pro-people issues.

MP Brenda Nabukenya

Five per cent of the sampled voters also said they would vote for the Luwero Woman MP, Brenda Nabukenya, as their Bamunanika County MP. However, Nabukenya recently said she will seek another term as Luwero District Woman MP.

Katikamu North 

The incumbent, Denis Ssekabira, a former NRM diehard, who switched political allegiance from the ruling party to NUP during the run-up to the 2021 general election, is leading the pack, with 61.4% of the sampled voters saying they would vote him if elections were held today.

Respondents described Ssekabira as an “effective” leader. He is followed by Ronald Ndawula, the NRM Luwero district chairperson, at 18.2%. A total of 6.8% of the sampled voters said they would vote for the NRM chairperson for youth league, Gaddafi Nassur, for the Katikamu North seat in 2026.

MP Denis Ssekabira

During the 2021 elections, Ndawula, who stood as an independent candidate, contested for the Katikamu North parliamentary seat but lost to Ssekabira. Ssekabira and Ndawula recently said they will contest for Katikamu North seat in 2026.

Katikamu South  

The battle for Katikamu South is a tight race between Abubakar Kalume and Patricia Magara of the ruling NRM party, with 33.3% of the sampled voters saying they would vote for both politicians if polls were to be held today.

None of the sampled respondents mentioned the incumbent, Hassan Kirumira of NUP.

Kirumira recently declared intention to contest again as MP in 2026. 

Mawokota North 

In Mawokota North, 78.9% of the sampled respondents said they would vote the incumbent, Hillary Kiyaga. The musician-turned-politician defeated former trade minister Amelia Kyambadde during the 2021 general election. For the 2026 race, the duo will renew their political battle.

Kyambadde of NRM and NUP’s Kiyaga have already expressed interest in contesting for the Mawokota North seat in 2026.

During the survey, 17.5% of the sampled respondents said they would vote Kyambadde, noting that during her tenure as MP for the area, she revolutionarised service delivery and supported development programmes. 

Born in 1959, Kyambadde joined elective politics in 2010, and replaced Peter Claver Mutuluza in 2011 as Mawokota North MP. Asked why they support Kyambadde, some voters such as Douglas Bukenya said: “We have issues that are still affecting the community, for example, electricity and health.

Amelia Kyambadde

Amelia Kyambadde had tried to tackle them, we should give her another chance.” On the other hand, Joseph Ssemakula said: “This is the fi rst term for Hillary Kiyaga, I think in the next term, he will improve.” 

Kampala Central  

Although he recently said he will not seek another term as MP for Kampala Central, 65.6% of the sampled voters said they would vote for the incumbent, Muhammad Nsereko, as their MP in 2026.

Nsereko, who contested as an independent candidate in the 2021 general election, said he will contest for president in 2026 on the Ecological Party, which recently elected him as party president. He joined Parliament in 2011, replacing Kampala Lord Mayor Erias Lukwago.

During the survey, 25% of the sampled respondents also said they would vote for Lukwago as their MP. Lukwago, who is the acting party president of the People’s Front for Freedom, has not declared any intention to contest for the Kampala Central MP seat. He is expected to seek re-election as Lord Mayor.

NUP’s secretary general Lewis Rubongoya is the other contender people singled out, with 3.1% sampled voters saying they would vote for him as Kampala Central MP in 2026.

NUP has already endorsed Rubongoya as their party candidate for the Kampala Central MP seat.

Kawempe North 

In Kawempe North, NUP’s Elias Luyimbazi Nalukoola leads the pack, with 81.3% of the sampled voters saying they would vote him as their MP in 2026. Nalukoola, a first-timer in Parliament, joined the House in March this year through a byelection following the death of Muhammad Ssegirinya.

His win was contested in court by NRM’s Faridah Nambi and it was nullified by the High Court. Nalukoola, a lawyer, has since appealed to the Court of Appeal. Although he is the MP for Kira Municipality, 12.5% of the sampled voters in Kawempe North said they would vote for Ibrahim Ssemujju Nganda as their MP.

Elias Luyimbazi Nalukoola

Ssemujju has already declared intention to seek re-election as Kira Municipality MP. Asked why they support Nalukoola, some sampled voters such as Sarah Kamya from Nsooba village, said he has not abandoned the people who recently voted him. 

Rubaga North 

It is a tight race between the incumbent and NUP diehard Abubaker Kawalya and the Inspector General of Government, Beti Kamya, with 40% of the sampled voters saying they would vote the duo as their MP come 2026. Although she has not expressed interest in contesting for the Rubaga North seat, sampled voters described Kamya, who lost the seat to Kawalya in 2021, as a visionary leader.

MP Abubaker Kawalya

Kamya served as Rubaga North MP from 2006 to 2010. On the other hand, Kawalya, a former speaker of the Kampala Capital City Authority, was described by sampled voters as a “hands-on” leader who has improved service delivery within the city division. 

Makindye East  

In this constituency, 60% of the sampled voters said they would vote for Allan Ssewanyana, the incumbent MP of the neighbouring Makindye West Constituency. Ssewanyana, a former Democratic Party leader, who crossed to NUP during the run-up to the 2021 general election, said recently that he will seek re-election as Makindye West MP.

Allan Ssewanyana

A total of 20% of the sampled respondents also said they would vote for former Makindye East MP Ibrahim Kasozi. During the 2021 general polls, Kasozi of the Forum for Democratic Change was defeated by Makindye East incumbent MP Derrick Nyeko of NUP. Nyeko recently declared intention to contest again for the Makindye East MP seat, while Kasozi said he will contest for the Kampala Lord mayoral seat in 2026. 

Nakawa East 

The incumbent, Ronald Balimwezo, is the people’s choice for Nakawa East MP, with 42.3% of the sampled voters saying they would vote for him in 2026. Balimwezo recently declared intention to contest for the Kampala Lord Mayor seat, saying he will not contest again as MP for Nakawa East.

He is followed by Joel Ssenyonyi, with 30.8% of the sampled respondents saying they would vote for the Leader of Opposition in Parliament as their Nakawa East MP. Ssenyonyi is the MP for neighbouring Nakawa West.

MP Joel Ssenyonyi

Former Nakawa MP Fred Ruhindi is also cited, with 3.8% of the sampled voters saying they would vote for him as their Nakawa East MP. Asked why they support Balimwezo, sampled voters said he fights for the common person. Others said they prefer Ruhindi because he educated many children from the downtrodden and slum communities of Nakawa during his tenure as MP. 

Nakawa West 

In Nakawa West, the incumbent, Joel Ssenyonyi, leads the pack, with 66.7% of the sampled voters saying they would vote the NUP stalwart as their MP in 2026.

He is followed by Ronald Balimwezo from the neighbouring Nakawa East, with 25% of the sampled respondents saying they would vote him as their Nakawa West MP. A total of 8.3% of the sampled respondents said they would vote for NRM’s Margaret Zziwa as their MP.

MP Joel Ssenyonyi

Zziwa, a former Kampala Woman MP and speaker of the East African Legislative Assembly, recently declared intention to oust Ssenyonyi from Nakawa West. She will contest for the NRM flag with Anderson Burora. 

Bukono mid-west

Here, 35.7% of the sampled respondents said they would vote the incumbent, Isaac Ssejjoba, of the ruling NRM party. He is followed by Saul Kamaali, with 28.6% of the sampled voters saying they would vote him as their MP. 

Bukoto South

In Bukoto South, 48.1% of the sampled respondents said they would vote Julius Ssentamu. Ssentamu has contested for the seat in three previous elections (2011, 2016 and 2021), but lost all.

Dr Twaha Kagabo

He is followed by the former Masaka LC5 chairperson, Jude Mbabaali, at 15.4%. Mbabaali recently said he will contest for the Kimaanya-Kabonera seat and not Bukoto South.

A total of 13.5% of the sampled respondents sided with the incumbent, Dr Twaha Kagabo, who recently crossed from NUP to NRM. Kagabo will tussle it out for the NRM flag with Muyanja Mbabaali. 

Bukoto West 

For Bukoto West, 66.7% of the sampled respondents said they would vote the incumbent, Muhammad Ssentaayi, as their next area MP.

He is followed by the Lwengo LC5 chairperson, Ibrahim Kitata, at 13.3%. Kitata recently declared intention to contest for the Bukoto West seat on the NRM ticket. He will battle for the NRM flag with Ssentaayi. 

Bukoto East 

Once a NUP stronghold, voters said recent events within the opposition party, coupled with emerging divisions and the formation of the Democratic Front party by the Nyendo-Mukungwe Division MP, Mathias Mpuuga, have left the constituency shaky.

MP Mathias Mpuuga

A total of 48.6% of the sampled voters said they would vote Mpuuga as their Bukoto East MP if elections were to be held today.

The respondents described Mpuuga as an “effective” and “capable” leader. A total of 11.4% of the sampled respondents said they would vote the incumbent, Ronald Evans Kanyike of NUP. Kanyike, a prominent businessman in Masaka, was introduced to opposition politics by the Masaka city mayor, Florence Namayanja. 

Kimaanya-Kabonera 

Here, 47.2% of the sampled respondents said they would vote the incumbent, Dr Abed Bwanika, as their area MP in 2026.

Dr Abed Bwanika

He is followed by Mpuuga at 36.1%. Jude Mbabaali, who recently crossed from the Democratic Party to NUP, is at 5.6%. 

Nyendo-Mukungwe
 
Represented by MP Mathias Mpuuga, 32.0% of the respondents said Mpuuga was still their preferred choice if elections were conducted today.

He is followed by Lubowa Ssebina Gyavira at 12%. Gyavira, a NUP diehard, is a former Makerere University bursar, who recently resigned to contest against Mpuuga. It is not clear whether Mpuuga will seek re-election as MP.

Lubowa Ssebina Gyavira

However, what is clear is the fact that he was recently elected as the president of the Democratic Front, a new party he formed after the fall-out with NUP and its leader, Robert Kyagulanyi aka Bobi Wine. 

Busujju County 

In Busujju County, 46.9% of the voters sampled said they would vote the incumbent, David Lukyamuzi Kalwanga. 

Mityana Municipality  

In Mityana Municipality, Francis Zaake leads with 61.1%. He is followed by Patrick Mugisha Nshiimye at 16.7%.

Respondents said Zaake, a NUP diehard, has made significant contributions towards service delivery in the area and he has strong determination and focus on achieving developmental goals. 

Mityana North 

A total of 45.5% of the sampled respondents in Mityana North said they would vote for Patrick Mugisha because of his efficient leadership skills, and his focus on accountable and transparent leadership.

He was closely followed by Francis Zaake with 36.4% and James Ssenabulya at 9.1%. The constituency is currently represented by Muhamad Nsegumire Kibedi of the ruling NRM party. 

Mityana South 

Here, it was neck-and-neck, with Francis Zaake and Patrick Mugisha Nshiimye tying at 28.6%.

MP Francis Zaake

V
oters praised Zaake for being accountable and transparent in his leadership, while Nshiimye was applauded for his commitment to social service delivery projects.

The constituency is currently represented by Richard Lumu of the Democratic Party. 

Mukono Municipality 

Betty Nambooze Bakireke, the current MP, leads, with the majority of the sampled voters (93.8%) saying they would vote for the NUP strongwoman as their MP.

Respondents said they support her because of giving support to people’s concerns in the community.

MP Betty Nambooze Bakireke

They described her as a popular voice in the area. She is followed by Mukono North MP Abdallah Kiwanuka at 2.1%. Kiwanuka recently declared intention to contest again in Mukono North. 

Mukono North  

Here, former area MP and state minister for youth Ronald Kibuule leads the pack with 42.9% of the sampled respondents saying they would vote him as Mukono North MP. He is followed by the incumbent, Abdallah Kiwanuka, with 30.2%. 

Mukono South 

The incumbent, Fred Kayondo, leads in Mukono South constituency with 90.9% of the voters saying they would vote for him.

Respondents said they would vote Kayondo, a strong DP supporter, because of his effective leadership skills, strong dedication to improving and achieving national goals.

The voters also said Kayondo is exemplary and has a people-centric character. Kayondo is followed by Betty Namboze with 9.1%. 

Nakifuma County 

Fred Kaggwa Ssimbwa leads the pack, with 53.3% of the sampled voters saying they would vote him if elections were held today. He is followed by Mukono South MP Fred Kayondo, with 23.3%. 

Buyamba County  

In Buyamba constituency, Gyaviira Ssemwanga, the incumbent, leads with 58.3% of the votes, followed by Amos Kasirabo with 16.7%. Voters told the researchers that Ssemwanga has the necessary and effective leadership knowledge, makes important contributions in the area for improved services. 

Kooki County 

Boaz Kisirabo Ninsiima leads in Kooki constituency with 67.9%, followed by Didas Ayeebwa at 16.1%. The respondents said Kisirabo possesses effective leadership skills, is an exemplary leader in the community and is very popular. 

Busiro East 

In Busiro East Constituency, 73.0% of the respondents said they would support the incumbent MP, Medard Sseggona, because of his contributions towards improved services in the community. They also said they would support him because he is popular, and skills. 

MP Medard Sseggona

Busiro North 

In Busiro North Constituency, the current MP, Paul Nsubuga, leads with 60.0% of the votes, followed by Nsereko Musoke with 20.0%. Sampled voters said Nsubuga gives attention and supports people’s concerns and challenges in the community. 

Busiro South 

Charles Matovu leads in Busiro South constituency, with 38.5% of the sampled voters saying they would vote for him. Matovu is followed by the Wakiso LC5 chairperson, Matia Bwanika, with 34.6%.

Bwanika recently declared intention to contest for the MP seat, saying he will not seek re-election as LC5 chairperson. 

Kyadondo East 

Muwadda Nkunyingi had the majority of the support, with 73.5% of the sampled voters settling for the NUP MP.

MMP uwadda Nkunyingi

He was followed by Medard Sseggona with 13.8% of the sampled voters. The voters also mentioned ex-Wakiso District Woman MP Rosemary Sseninde (5.9%) as the other contender they would vote for in Kyadondo East. 

Kira Municipality 

The incumbent, Ibrahim Ssemujju Nganda, leads the pack with 83.7% of the sampled voters in Kira Municipality saying they would vote the People’s Front for Freedom spokesperson as their MP if elections were to be held today.

He is followed by Jimmy Lukwago with 8.2% of the sampled voters, saying hey would vote for the NUP diehard as their MP. A total of 4.1% of the sampled voters said they would vote NUP lawyer George Musisi as their MP for Kira Municipality. 

Nansana Municipality 

In Nansana Municipality, 33.3% of the sampled respondents said they would vote for journalist and NUP diehard supporter Bulazio Zambali Mukasa. He is followed by John Bosco Serunkuuma with 28.6%.

Bulasio Zambaali Mukasa

The incumbent and NUP member, Hannington Wakayima Musoke and Henry Lubowa of the Democratic Front tied at 14.3%.

How survey was conducted

The poll was conducted by Vision Group’s research team between March and May, 2025, covering a sample size of 6,006 Ugandans countrywide. To ensure national representation, the Vision Group research team sampled eligible Ugandan voters from across 58 districts.

Only citizens possessing a valid national identity card and aged 18 years and above were sampled. The survey covered all 17 sub-regions of Uganda.

The respondents were randomly sampled from both rural and urban areas. Of the total respondents, 2,433 were from urban areas, while 3,573 were picked from rural areas.

According to the survey, the majority of the respondents were between the ages of 25 and 29 (1,201) and 30 and 34 years (1,058). Only 19 of the total sampled respondents refused to respond to the questions.

Vision Group editor-in-chief Barbara Kaija explained that the Citizens Manifesto is a compilation of Ugandan views collected by a team of professional researchers ahead of the national election.

On the credibility of the survey, Kaija said: “This is a scientific survey and it was not influenced by anybody, not even the Government is informed when we are doing this research. Any other researcher is free to do their research for comparison. I am very confident of the results because in the past, similar surveys done by Vision Group have not been so different from the final election results.”

The Vision Group research department has long experience in carrying out market research and opinion polling. An opinion poll, often referred to as a survey or a poll, is a human research survey of public opinion from a particular sample.