AfCFTA: Will the current euphoria burst?

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OPINION

By George Arodi

The quest for economic integration of Africa is finally here. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) represents a historic milestone in the economic integration of the African continent. The FTA which entered into force in May 2019, is poised to be among the world’s largest free trade area in terms of participating countries.

The FTA brings together a total of 55 countries and eight regional economic communities (RECs) and aims at creating a single market for goods and services, facilitate the movement of capital and promote the free movement of people across the continent.

Just like any economic integration, the potential benefits of AfCFTA are immense and can be the game changer in Africa continent in terms of job creation and poverty reduction.

The sound statistics of GDP in excess of $3.6 trillion and about 1.3 million people offers great promise for trade and foreign direct investment. But amidst all these great statistics the question lingers whether the signing of the protocol forming AfCFTA will translate into greater benefits for member states.

In 2009, I was honoured to speak at the East Africa Business Council conference in Arusha. In the session on AfCFTA, I challenged the participants to look at the future of AfCFTA against the mirror of the performance of other regional trading blocs that have dotted African continent for centuries. Some of us who have been at the helm of various integration platforms are privy to the performance of various RECs in Africa — COMESA, EAC, ECOWAS, SADC, among others. Despite being the youngest REC, the East Africa Community (EAC) is still considered among the most saucerful trading blocs in Africa.

With the original three founding member states, EAC expanded its membership to include Burundi, Rwanda, South Sudan and DRC Congo. The Federal Republic of Somalia was admitted into the community during the sitting of the EAC Summit in November 2023 as the eighth member state.

Since the coming the into force of the EAC Protocol, we have registered great intra-trade growth within the member states with major gains in balance of trade being registered in Uganda and Tanzania trade with Kenya. The region has continued to attract inflows of FDI due to the offering of the expanded market.

But despite these great strides, we still have teething issues within EAC which inhibit market penetration, making harnessing large market potential a mirage. The policymakers have not been putting their word into action — rolling out policies but reneging on some key implementation. The initial strict adherence to the stipulations of the protocol has waned with each member state coming up with requests in preferential tax treatment and exemptions. The national agenda of the individual member states seems to override some of the key agenda of the EAC.

New member states join EAC with their fingers on the button of Article 19 of the Common Market Protocol on safeguards to continue to gain concessions on application of provisions of the protocol like common external tariffs. The effect of these concessions is that the member states continue to seal their markets from products from other member states thus limiting intra-EAC trade. And it appears the initial five-year maximum window for application of the article has been thrown out of the window and the concession turned into a permanent feature. With the pace of emerging issues within EAC, I foresee a fast erosion of the gains, exacerbated by the expansion of membership.

So, as we focus on the future potential of AfCFTA in opening the African continent to trade, we need to retrospect on the areas that continue to beset the full realisation of the full potential of the current RECs in Africa. For example, COMESA, which was the largest REC in Africa with 19 members, has remained a shadow of its former self and we hardly make reference to it in the corridor of trade talks.

As a young boy, I would relate ECOWAS, more, with their contribution of troops to keep-peace missions in the simmering instabilities in West Africa. Similarly, I struggle to grow a list of economic contributions of IGAD in areas of trade and industry, leave alone social, technological and scientific realm in its over 28 years of existence.

The issues which hinder harnessing the full benefits of various RECs in Africa remain quite similar — stay in the application of various aspects of the protocol, poor infrastructure connectivity, mistrust amongst member states, lack of political goodwill, ego factors in our political leadership which makes it difficult to resolve emerging issues within the RECs and non-tariff barriers with weak mechanisms in their resolution.

While the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) holds significant promise for economic integration and growth across the continent, some challenges which have affected other integration projects in Africa may show up under AfCFTA and their resolution remains crucial for ensuring the sustainable and inclusive development of the FTA. One of the primary risks to the success of AfCFTA is the ineffective implementation of its provisions. Co-ordinating policies and actions among the 55 member states, each with its own regulatory environment and economic conditions will pose a significant challenge.

There must be deliberate and standardised regulations across the diverse economies, a task that can prove to be complex requiring careful coordination and co-operation among member states.

To me, another key challenge in intra trade within AfCFTA remains infrastructure connectivity that is crucial to facilitate the seamless movement of goods and services between the member states. The European Union has managed to register great success in intra trade of above 50% mainly due to infrastructure connectivity.

In Africa, even roads within our major manufacturing zones are in a pathetic state which hampers the movement of goods within a few kilometres’ radius of the manufacturing plant. We still have some shipments from one member stat to another being routed through Europe with transit time as long as 40 days, while transit time from most Indian ports to some African ports is under 10 days.

Other than the movement of goods, the movement of people freely within most African countries is a challenge from the cost on air fares and immigration regulations. We are currently challenged in trading freely with a neighbouring member state within the current RECs. How easy it will be to explore the market opportunities offered by distant AfCFTA markets is yet to be tested.

Addressing these challenges will require strong commitment, collaboration and co-ordinated efforts among member states, regional organisations, and other stakeholders. Monitoring progress, adapting policies as needed, and fostering inclusivity will be essential to overcoming potential failures and ensuring the long-term success of the AfCFTA.

Meanwhile, I put my eggs in various baskets.

The writer is CEO, Uganda Baati Ltd & vice-chair Uganda Iron and Steel Sector Association (within Uganda Manufacturers Association)