Russia-Ukraine conflict: Why modern diplomacy and third party liability should be prioritized?

As the war in Ukraine continues, I firmly believe that neutral countries will play a big role in ending this conflict. 

The Western world was shocked in late September when news broke out that Saudi Arabia had helped negotiate a 300-person prisoner swap between Ukraine and Russia, the largest of its kind since the war began in early 2022.  

This raging conflict, unleashed under the pretext of security and demilitarizing Ukraine, is now in its seventh month, and there seems to be no end to it in sight. 

According to the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission report, the toll of corroborated civilian casualties has risen to above 15,000. 

Besides, the situation of the prisoners of war is much distressing, as allegations of ruthless torture and mistreatment, unlawful detention, and inequitable access to food, water, and other essential healthcare necessities have been levelled against Russia’s armed forces. 

The UN report also found out that at least 400 civilians were facing arbitrary detentions and enforced disappearance in the areas under Russian control. 

In contrast, the Ukrainian forces carried out 51 cases of arbitrary arrest and 30 of enforced disappearance. 

But the fact that Turkey and Saudi Arabia negotiated the prisoner swap deal highlights, the importance of third-party diplomacy in a war that looks only to be escalating, and the power that ‘more neutral’ governments can wield in brokering peace.  

This surprise prisoner swap that led to the release of over 300 people, including 215 Ukrainians, 10 foreigners, and 55 Russians and pro-Moscow Ukrainians, has been deemed a “diplomatic victory” and will certainly usher in a new era of cooperation and mediation between Moscow and Kyiv.

Despite heavy pressure from the U.S. to cut off ties with Russia in a bid to isolate them, Prince Mohammed bin Salman chose to deepen his relationship with Russia- defying the dictates of its western allies, offering Vladimir Putin some solace at a critical juncture in the ongoing war. 

However, the Crown Prince’s recent endeavours to act as a facilitator for the safe return of prisoners to their respective countries is exemplary and accentuate how this special bond between Russia and Saudi Arabia can be capitalized on to condemn Putin’s unjust invasion of Ukraine and put an end to widespread destruction and humanitarian suffering in both countries.  

In an exclusive interview with Arab News, President Volodymyr Zelensky thanked the Saudi government for their help and reaffirmed that since the annexation of Ukrainian territories, he would not be conducting any further negotiations with Russia until Putin was no longer in power – meaning that diplomatic progress has all, but stalled. 

“We did warn them, if you want to launch these fake referendums, there will be no further talks with the president of the Russian Federation, for if the Russian President cannot respect the law, international law, the constitution, and by the way, not just our constitution, but that of his own country, he should not be violating our territorial integrity if this happens,” Zelensky added.

Since the war began, Western governments have been arming and advising Ukraine on how to counter Russia’s attacks, and their pro-Ukraine stance has made it, so they have very little negotiating power behind the scenes. 

However, there is room for third-party mediation to facilitate bilateral talks and de-escalate these growing tensions. 

But for that, the West and the Arab world need to play their part in leveraging a peace deal between the two parties, by not only condemning Putin’s recent referendums in Russian-controlled areas, but also convincing Zelensky to soften his mediation stances. 

Despite calling out Russian aggressiveness during a UN vote last March, several Arab countries such as the UAE, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia chose to remain neutral to date, but have expressed their desire to act as arbitrators. 

Also, other countries, such as Turkey and South Africa, have refrained from ‘choosing sides’ while still engaging with Russia and Ukraine in some capacity. 

The fallout of the 2022 Russia-Ukrainian war on global stability cannot be underestimated. 

And without real diplomatic solutions originating from third parties, the war could drag on for years – fuelling more global crises.

Now is the time to explore the pros and cons of third-party mediators and how diplomatic channels can be rolled out to forge good working relations between Moscow and Kyiv.

And for that, the Western and Arab world need to step forward to coax Putin to end the war on Ukraine and redress the reservations and apprehensions of Zelensky against Putin- or else the regional geopolitical and economic shifts will exacerbate to no point of recovery.

John Naku is a final year graduate student of International Relations and Diplomatic Studies at Makerere University Kampala and the Principal Private Secretary to the Kyabazinga of Busoga.

nakujohn@gmail.com